Dimdim: Avoiding 'SOS' - sick office syndrome

By Guest Writer - November 20, 2009

Guest post by DD Ganguly, CEO, Dimdim

A few years back, I used to work for a global company with more than 13,200 people. My office alone had more than 1,000 people, so when winter rolled around, it'd be hard not to encounter someone who had a cold or the flu. Back then, it was unpleasant to hear a colleague sneezing or coughing in the halls, but it wouldn't prevent me from being in the office, nor would I be upset that they were coming to work sick. But now, coughing in your elbow is not enough to prevent the spread of dangerous, highly contagious diseases like the H1N1 virus. We must change the way we do business to stay healthy.

Continues >>

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November 20, 2009 | Permalink | Comments | Subscribe to SVW

A Reader Writes: Internet Research Ethics Org Appoints A Wikipedia Vandal

By Tom Foremski - November 20, 2009

A reader writes:

I feel like a tattle-tell by wrinting this, but I think this a story that should be told.

Back in 2004 a person, using the pseudonym "Joe Isuzu" logged into Wikipedia and vandalized 13 records. An alert editor noticed that random editing was being done from the same IP address. Examining the records he found the errors and corrected them. The perpetrator, when confronted with the vandalism, explained it away as a research project to test the validity of Wikipedia data. Had the vandal masked his IP address the errors migh have taken a great deal longer to detect and the actual perpetrator might not have been found. In the law, the fact that he used a pseudonym demostrated "guilty knowledge."

Ordinarily this incident would slip into cyber-history and be forgotten, but the perpetrator has become a Vice President for The Asociation of Internet Researchers (AOIR). This organization holds itself out as the author for Internet research ethics. The role the perpetrator now plays is to be a spokesman for these ethical standards.

IMHO, this situation is equivalent to electing Michael Mitnick (SP) to be a leader of EFF. Dr. Alex Halavais is the perpetrator and the incident can be found by searching on Google for the "Isuzu Experiment."

- - -

Alexander Halavais - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The Isuzu Experiment - a thaumaturgical compendium

Association of Internet Researchers » Blog Archive » VP Candidate: Alex Halavais

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November 20, 2009 | Permalink | Comments | Subscribe to SVW

Tech Awards For Humanity: "Cash Prizes" Galore And Al Gore's Meaningless Speech . . . And Amazing Laureates!

By Tom Foremski - November 20, 2009

Last night I attended the Tech Awards Gala, which celebrates technology benefiting humanity, with the award of five $50,000 "cash prizes."

Technology in the service of humanity seems a better description because all of the 15 laureates chosen, communicated a quiet humility, patience and a stubborn purpose in making a big difference in the lives of many people. It was awe inspiring.

Many of the ideas were simple but powerful: distributing camping lamps with rechargeable batteries and recharging them every day at a central location so that kids can do homework and parents can read or work; attaching a code to medicines to check their validity through a simple text-message; and much more.

Unfortunately, only five of the laureates won a prize yet each of them deserved it. Many work with annual budgets of just $10,000.

The Tech Awards are grand affairs, full of Silicon Valley "royalty" with some 2000 people decked out in black-tie and glittering gowns. If that ballroom were a country, it would vault into the top 100 in terms of GDP, for that evening.

Which is why it always strikes me that $50,000 is a bit stingy. But I have a solution:

- Place a pen and paper at every dinner place setting and play a game of picking the laureate you think will win.

- You get to see a short video focused on each laureate, you tick the box next to the one that's your favorite.

- If you pick all five correctly your table congratulates you and you take home the central flower setting.

- At the end of the awards, you then have an opportunity to make a contribution to your favorite laureates. You fill out your credit card number, fill in the amount of your contribution and the money is divided among the laureates.

It's a great opportunity to raise money because everyone is emotionally moved by the story of the laureates. The organizers are literally letting money walk out when it could be left on the table, collected, and donated. That's my 2 cents.

The rest of the evening wasn't as good as hearing the stories of the laureates. The presenters of the awards, big names like Michael Splinter, CEO of Applied Materials, which founded the Tech Awards, were tedious attempts at inspirational speeches. All the right words but lacking in anything else.

The worst of the lot was former vice-president Al Gore, who received the Global Humanitarian Award.

First, he thanked super VC John Doer and his other pals at Kleiner Perkins, before mentioning the Tech Award winners. He then launched into a very long speech that sounded like he had literally taped-together hundreds of well-meaning phrases that were meaningless when heard together!

I tried to concentrate and listen to what he was saying but it all sounded like a typical politician's speech. He sounded like a parody of someone imitating Al Gore give a speech about global warming. It was awful. He got a standing ovation.

Afterwards, I checked around and asked if others had a similar experience. Everyone said yes.

All the laureates gave far better speeches. Al Gore should give his prize and appearance money to the laureates that went home without any "cash prize" money. (All the presenters emphasized the "cash prize" constantly, so often that it became the catchphrase for the evening.)

I enjoyed the evening and I support the work of the Tech Awards and I hope that more money can be raised for the incredible work that the laureates are doing in some of the poorest regions of the world.

- - -

(Note to organizers: I'd love to be able to embed some of the videos I saw last night. Could you please make those available along with a handy donation form?)

Here are descriptions of the laureates: Technology In The Service Of Humanity

SFGATE- Tech Awards recognize innovation

San Jose Mercury - awards honor social entrepreneurs

Tech Awards Recognize Science in Service to Humanity - Tonic

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November 20, 2009 | Permalink | Comments | Subscribe to SVW

The 'i' In Silicon Valley - New Study Shows Strength of Ties With India

By Tom Foremski - November 20, 2009

Indian entrepreneurs are everywhere in Silicon Valley. And a new report on the Bay Area Indian community measures the ties between Silicon Valley and India.

Here are some facts from the report, “Global Reach,” by the Bay Area Council Economic Institute:

- Indian entrepreneurs helped found many Silicon Valley companies such as Sun Microsystems, Tibco Software, Brocade, Cerent and Hotmail.

- As a measure of its success, the median income in the Bay Area’s Indian community is more than $107,000.

- 75% of adults have at least a bachelors degree.

- 70% are in management or professional positions.

- More than 40 Bay Area venture firms have Indian leadership and/or activity in India.

Silicon Valley/Bay Area has very close ties to India:

- Visa has issued more than 30 million debit cards and 32 million credit cards to Indian consumers.

- India hosts Symantec’s largest engineering si.te outside the US, and works on more than 80% of its products.

- India accounts for one third of Adobe’s global engineering workforce.

- Hewlett Packard is the largest player in India’s IT market.

- Levi Strauss has 450 exclusive outlets in 80 Indian cities.

- Cisco second global headquarters is in Bangalore.

The report states: "The combination of Bay Area innovation and capital with India’s engineering talent, it finds, can be a formidable one in global markets."

The report says that there are issues such as immigration reform:

"An Indian with an advanced degree can wait as long as five years before his or her application for a green card (permanent residence) is even considered. This makes no sense when opportunities in India are beckoning and other countries are aggressively competing for the same talent."

Please see: BayAreaEconomy.org

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November 20, 2009 | Permalink | Comments | Subscribe to SVW

Technology In The Service Of Humanity

By Tom Foremski - November 19, 2009

I'm looking forward to the black-tie event of the year for Silicon Valley: The Tech Awards - celebrating technology that helps humanity.

You can watch it live at 6.45pm this evening: The Tech Awards 2009 | NBC Bay Area

There are five categories: environment, economic development, education, equality, and health.

The prize of $50,000 cash, is a little on the stingy side in my view, but significant because the recipients are usually in the developing world. (The gala costs way more than $250,000 but it also acts as a fund raiser for the Tech Museum of Innovation.)

Also, Al Gore will be there receiving the James C. Morgan Global Humanitarian Award.

However, these winners look far more interesting:
(From The Tech Museum Awards - Technology Benefiting Humanity | Press Room)

The Tech Awards Laureates 2009:

Intel Environment Award

Dr. Joseph Adelegan, Cows to Kilowatts (Nigeria): Slaughterhouse waste is one of the most significant sources of water pollution and greenhouse gases emissions in most developing economies. The anaerobic fixed film reactor used in the Cows to Kilowatts project decontaminates the waste stream from slaughterhouses and turns this organic waste into methane that can be used to generate electricity or as inexpensive cooking gas.http://www.un.org/esa/sustdev/publications/africa_casestudies/kilowatts.pdf

GRUPEDSAC (Grupo para Promover la Educaci�n y el Desarrollo Sustentable), Eco-techniques Toolkits for Self-Sufficiency (Mexico): Poor quality of life in rural Mexico includes loss of soil fertility, lack of access to clean water, adequate shelter, nutrition, and health resources. Customizable Eco-techniques Toolkits for Self-Sufficiency combine old and new sustainable technologies-from cisterns to solar ovens-to fit the needs of each community. http://www.grupedsac.org/

Sean White, Electronic Field Guide (USA): Plant species are disappearing at an alarming rate; mobile identification and classification of plant species may aid in conservation and cataloguing. The Electronic Field Guide uses photos to identify leaves with mobile, hand-held and augmented reality visualization of information. http://herbarium.cs.columbia.edu


BD Biosciences Economic Development Award

Alternative Energy Development Corp. (AEDC), Alternative Energy for Empowerment (South Africa): Fuel cell use largely avoids the lead-acid waste of solar or wind installation batteries. Inexpensive, zinc-air fuel cells can be used in poor communities lacking access to grid power. Fuel cell anodes can be removed manually in about 15 minutes and zinc oxide waste recycled as fertilizer. www.aedc.co.za

Solar Ear (Botswana, Brazil): Standard Western hearing aids cost an average of $750, with battery costs typically $1 per week. Solar Ear, an inexpensive hearing aid, suited to local conditions and manufactured by deaf workers who train one-another, costs $100 and is paired with a solar recharging unit for the batteries. www.solarear.com.br

Driptech (India): Hundreds of millions of people in the developing world face water shortages in crop production; drip irrigation delivers precisely the right amount of water and not more. Driptech's unique laser technology drills holes in one main line, thereby reducing the number of parts and the cost of a drip irrigation system. www.driptechnologies.com


Microsoft Education Award

Akshaya Patra Foundation, School Meals Program (India):
High quality, nutrient rich meals are key to the education process in poverty stricken areas. The School Meals Program uses integrated and adapted high-performance kitchen technology and food delivery systems to serve millions of Indian children a nutritious daily meal. http://www.akshayapatra.org/

GeoGebra (International): Dynamic Mathematics for Everyone is a free, open-source software to display and practice geometry and mathematics that will help achieve rapid diffusion of information and quicker comprehension. GeoGebra created web-based, open-source software to visualize and practice geometric-based mathematics. http://www.geogebra.org/

The Khan Academy (International): High school students around the world need informal, clear explanations that can be reviewed at a leisurely pace to supplement their formal learning. The Khan Academy created hundreds of free educational videos in math, statistics, physics, and finance using drawing software. The "blackboard" style videos are accessible via the internet and hosted on YouTube.http://www.khanacademy.org/


Katherine M. Swanson Equality Award

World of Good Development Organization (International): Handicraft workers around the world are generally paid per piece, often at low hourly rates. World of Good Development Organization's Fair Wage Guide Software provides localized pricing evaluation of handmade goods to improve wages of informal workers. The free web-based platform encourages ethical trade by comparing wages worldwide. http://www.fairtradecalculator.com/index.php

kiwanja.net (International): kiwanja.net's FrontlineSMS allows for SMS technology to be used by hundreds of NGOs worldwide, for activities as diverse as election monitoring and dissemination of agricultural prices. This free software for non-governmental organizations (NGOs) deploys two-way SMS messaging and provides easy-to-use communications infrastructure for outreach in rural and urban areas. http://www.frontlinesms.com/

SuryaHurricane: Electrification for the Landless (Bangladesh): Providing mobile solar lighting can alleviate health problems due to smoke and CO2 emissions while establishing social enterprises. Retrofitting existing kerosene hurricane lanterns with CFL or LED lights can provide lighting for transient settlers in flood and hurricane-prone areas. SuryaHurricane also establishes infrastructure for women establishes women-oriented infrastructure for recharging lantern batteries using boats equipped with PV modules. http://www.shidhulai.org/afftechnology.html


Nokia Health Award

mPedigree (Ghana): Counterfeit drugs are ubiquitous in the developing world; up to 80 percent of drugs in pharmacies are fakes with little or no active ingredients. Pharmaceutical manufacturers label packages with an alphanumeric code, which is later confirmed when consumers send free text queries in to the mPedigree database. This low-cost, instant method for reducing drug counterfeiting is expanding from Ghana to Nigeria, Rwanda, and India. http://www.mpedigree.net

PATH, Ultra Rice (India, Brazil, Colombia): More than a billion people in developing nations suffer from dietary deficiencies in crucial micronutrients, including iron, zinc, folic acid, and vitamin A. Ultra Rice is an affordable, nutrient-fortified additive to standard rice, tailored to satisfy deficiencies common in the region where it is distributed. http://www.path.org/projects/ultra_rice.php

Village Reach, Management Information System for Vaccine (Mozambique): Poor countries bear the greatest burden of infectious diseases, and have the least infrastructure for public health programs. Village Reach worked closely with the Mozambique Ministry of Health to implement supply chain logistics management systems, utilizing portable USB drives to automatically update and share information to improve the delivery of vaccines, drugs and critical medical supplies to rural clinics.http://www.villagereach.org/

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November 19, 2009 | Permalink | Comments | Subscribe to SVW

The Death Of The Search Algorithm? Techmeme Has Six Editors

By Tom Foremski - November 18, 2009

Death might be too strong a word but this is definitely a watershed moment. Techmeme, which used to rely completely on Gabe Rivera's secret algorithm to pick tech news and blog posts, now has six editors.

This is significant because Techmeme shows that human aided algorithms are more effective than just software and server. Techmeme is a microcosm of the rest of the search-enabled world of services, from news aggregators to basic search.

If Techmeme can't be Techmeme just by using its algorithms, and now needs lots of editors, then that means much larger news aggregators and search companies will likely have to add human editors too.

Here is Gabe Rivera announcing the additional editors:

Ever since we first plugged human editors into the automation behind Techmeme, we've been improving how we work to make the human/machine combo more and more effective. While technological innovations have contributed to these improvements, smarter and more continuous human editing has played a critical role as well.

Over the past few months three more editors have joined Techmeme's editorial team. They are (with links to their Twitter profiles) Rich DeMuro, formerly of CNET and various TV news outlets, Lidija Davis of The Drill Down podcast, formerly of ReadWriteWeb, and Mahendra Palsule, writer for MakeUseOf.com and a former IT project manager. At this point we're now staffed 24 hours a day most weekdays.

We've created a list on Techmeme's Twitter profile to let you follow the whole team, which also includes Megan McCarthy, Omer Horvitz, and myself.

Six editors at Techmeme. Wow. That's got to signal a huge loss of faith in search algorithms. But I think Gabe is doing the right thing.

Also, Techmeme has Atul. He is a one-man Techmeme. He sends great article links to Techeme all day long. If you want to know what is in tomorrow's Techmeme just subscribe to @atul on Twitter -- he is tireless and usually spot-on.

Gabe didn't have choice bringing in human editors because there has been a big drop in the number of sites linking to each other's news stories.

For a long time you could see items on Techmeme that had no links to them at all. They were chosen by hand. Without sufficient numbers of links Techmeme's algorithm doesn't work.

What does this mean for other search engines, what does this mean for Google PageRank which lies at the heart of Google's search algorithm?

Surely, this is GOOG's Achilles' Heel!?

And surely this is a very signifiant watershed moment. I've always said that humans bring value but most geeks believe in the superiority of the algorithm. Things have changed. This is a very big change.

{The Demise Of Linking ... And Its Effect On Google Pagerank]

New Media Increasingly Looks Like Old Media Says Techmeme Founder

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November 18, 2009 | Permalink | Comments | Subscribe to SVW

TEDxSF - Little TED Just Like The Big TED

By Tom Foremski - November 18, 2009

I popped into the TEDxSF conference yesterday at the Academy of Sciences in Golden Gate Park and really enjoyed the presentations.

I've never been to the Big TED conference but I've seen many videos and this was just like it.

Conference is probably not the right word to describe TEDxSF it is more like attending a series of theatrical performances.

And each TED presentation seems to exist within a TED template:

- Pretty much everyone has a slide-show presentation to aid their 20 minute performance.

-Most are monologues.

- There is always an emotional moment or hook.

- A TED presentation will always seek to inspire

- It will encourage the audience to think beyond their boundaries.

-It will make copious use of terms such as: powerful, community, culture, creativity, innovation, engage, passion, transcend, think big, connect, connections, educate, universe...

- Each presentation have a funny glitch with the slides

- Humility and self-deprecating humor is essential.

- High ideals and big ideas are essential

- A call for change

- Ending with a potential standing ovation moment...

There is so much similarity in the TED presentations that sometimes it seems as if each one is an unconscious parody of itself.

But please don't misunderstand me, I love everything about TED, the people it attracts, and the incredible distribution of groundbreaking ideas that it enables. [It's yet another feather in the already very feathery hat of Chris Anderson.]

Less geek and more chic

I enjoyed all the presentations and I loved the music and comedy presentations too, they really helped to break things up.

I also liked being in a largely non-geek crowd. A couple of superstar angel investors were there, Stewart Alsop, and Jeff Clavier. And I ran into Jim Daly and Bruce Lowry. It was really refreshing not to be among the regular tech/media/PR crowd.

An explosion of TEDs

TEDxSF is an independently organized event following the TED format:

TEDx is a new program that enables local communities such as schools, businesses, libraries, neighborhoods or just groups of friends to organize, design and host their own independent, TED-like events.

There are a lot of local TEDx events coming up all over the world - 353! [Find one near you.]

The local TEDx events are less exclusive than Big TED and less elitist. You apply for an invitation and you are asked to write about your wishes for a better world. If you fit into any of these job categories you stand a better chance of an invitation: artist/designer/creator; industry leader; making a living by thinking big; professor; VC, lawyer, press, inventor, social entrepreneur, technologist, other.

You can apply to TEDxSF here: TEDxSF.

The next TEDx . . .

I'm looking forward to the next one in April and I am also looking forward to the TEDx events evolving, and maybe striking out a little on their own and developing their own local personalities.

I loved sitting back and watching the performances and I joked with one of the organizers, Jeanne Alford, "It's great, it's just like watching TED videos!" And it was.

I'm sitting there for hours, with others, in the dark, just watching...I would prefer to interact, debate, discuss, share -- in real-time, in real life, with real people.

If I'm just watching, then I can do that online. I'd rather not have the equivalent of an online experience when I'm out and about. I want a shared experience, and I want to share my experiences, and I want to experience others.

The Big TED has pioneered a great format but I'm sure it's not the only way to tell inspiring stories, there must be other ways to bring people together as participants, and maybe even as activists, too.

It would be great for TEDx events to experiment with different formats. I'd love to see the 'x' stand for experimental... as well as exciting, sexy, exuberant, existential, extrovert, exultive, and always extraordinary... But not exclusive. It would be great if it were a little bit more inclusive, a little more "Bill" than TED, a little more grounded.

But I have no idea if that's even possible. There is a very long list of rules that control every aspect of a TEDx event. But surely the point is not to clone Big TED, surely the point is not to have a homogeneous, franchised TED spreading throughout the world. The Golden Arches of TED?

I'd love to see the little TEDxs experiment, create, and explore, then bring the best back into Big TED. That would be amazing.

I'd like to congratulate to the organizing committee: Jeanne Alford, Heather Mason, Christine McCaull, Taylor Milsal, Suzie Katz, Mike Marquez, Peter Pham, Sumit Guha, Michael Levit, and Jason Johnson, and everyone that helped out - you did a superb job!

I'm looking forward to the next one and please let me know if I can help in any way.

- - -

This is my favorite TED video. It is from 2008. Brain researcher Jill Bolte Taylor's incredible experience of a massive stroke.

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November 18, 2009 | Permalink | Comments | Subscribe to SVW

SNCR Research: Social Media IS Influencing Business Decisions

By Tom Foremski - November 17, 2009

A new research study from the Society for New Communications Research (SNCR) has found that senior executives are affected by social media and that the influence on online communities on business decisions has grown over the past three years.

The research was conducted by Don Bulmer from SAP and Vanessa DiMauro.

Some of the key findings:

- Professional decision-making is becoming more social - enter the era of Social Media Peer Groups (SMPG)

• Traditional influence cycles are being disrupted by Social Media as decision makers utilize social networks to inform and validate decisions
• Professionals want to be collaborative in the decision-cycle but not be marketed or sold to online; however online marketing is a preferred activity by companies.
  

- Professional networks are emerging as decision-support tools

• Decision-makers are broadening reach to gather information especially among active users

- Professionals trust online information almost as much as information gotten from in-person

• Information obtained from offline networks still have highest levels of trust with slight advantage over online (offline: 92% - combined strongly/somewhat trust; online: 83% combined strongly/somewhat trust)

- Reliance on web-based professional networks and online communities has increased significantly over the past 3 years

• Three quarters of respondents rely on professional networks to support business decisions
• Reliance has increased for essentially all respondents over the past three years

- Social Media use patterns are not pre-determined by age or organizational affiliation

• Younger (20-35) and older professionals (55+) are more active users of social tools than middle aged professionals.
• There are more people collaborating outside their company wall than within their organizational intranet

Foremski's Take:

These are interesting findings particularly the level of trust that decision makers have towards their online communities, it is much higher than for other types of online information.

Also, the finding that age is NOT a factor in social media use is very interesting. There is a myth that younger people are heavier users or have mastered social media to a greater extent. This shows that age is not a factor and it should lead to broader adoption of social media for decision support.

There is more information here on Don Bulmer's blog: Everyday Influence: SNCR Research Reveals Social Media's Impact on Business and Decision Making

[I'm a Founding Fellow of SNCR - a Palo Alto based think tank focused on research into emerging media technologies.]

- - -

The methodology for this study involved a mixed methods approach supported by quantitative data gathered via online survey of 356 professionals to understand their perceptions and experiences with social media in support of their decision-making. Select interviews of 12 professionals were also conducted using a semi-structured interview guide as part of the second phase of the study.
Key demographics of the research include:

• Close to a quarter (23%) of respondents identified themselves as CEO of their organization; 50% as "Director" (24%) "Manager" (24%)
• Company size ranged from less than 100 to over 50,000 full-time employees
• Age was well distributed with the greatest proportion in the 36-45 range
• 25 countries were represented, with 58% of respondents living in the US
• All respondents were either the decision makers or influenced the decision process within their company or business unit

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November 17, 2009 | Permalink | Comments | Subscribe to SVW

What's Next? Beyond Real-Time...

By Tom Foremski - November 17, 2009

"Real-time" has become a huge buzzword in web developer communities this year and it's reflected in a spate of new conferences and product announcements.

Yesterday, I caught up with Tibco Software (a former long-time sponsor and currently an advertiser on SVW) because it has been in the business of providing real-time computing technologies for two decades.

Its real-time technologies have been powering Wall Street trading desks and huge financial systems for years, and are also being used by some of the world's largest corporations within a variety of industries.

While the web developer world has seemingly just woken up to the importance of real-time, Tibco is talking about a world beyond real-time computing.

But what's next after real-time? It's literally 'what is next?' It's the use of predictive analytics to anticipate business events and then to respond in real-time with a custom business process.

It means being able to pick one customer event out of tens of millions of daily events and respond immediately with a targeted business process.

For example: a bank customer using an ATM is offered custom loans; a casino that tracks customer losses and offers free tickets to a dinner show to cheer them up; a cell phone company that responds to multiple dropped calls with free minutes.

"Companies need to move beyond real-time and start using predictive, rules-based business processes. This is what I call Enterprise 3.0," says Vivek Ranadivé, CEO of Tibco.

In an Enterprise 3.0 world you cannot use an IT infrastructure that is centered on a database. It would be too slow for the software to track events and then have to go back and forth to the database in order to process and respond to business events. This is the type of IT world dominated by Oracle with its database software and applications.

In an Enterprise 3.0 environment, the software applications run in memory so that they are very fast and are able to work in real-time, applying business processes based on predictive analytics.

"People don't realize that companies such as Amazon are already event-driven. Vodaphone deals with more than 1 billion events a day," says Mr Ranadivé.

"If you have a little bit of knowledge about the future, if you know how your customers will behave, you then have the ability to improve services, and you have opportunities to up-sell and cross-sell."

He believes that this approach to business computing will happen because it is the best way companies can use IT as a competitive weapon.

Everyone has the same servers and IT equipment and ERP applications. Competitive distinction, and innovation, will be expressed through the predictive rules and business processes developed within companies.

Not for sale...

Tibco is in an unusual position in that there are very few software companies of its size that haven't already been acquired by a larger company.

Recently there were reports that the German software giant SAP might be interested in buying Tibco. And companies such as Oracle have been making lots of software acquisitions.

"We're not looking to be acquired by an Oracle," says Mr Ranadivé. "We believe we have the opportunity to become the next Oracle."

Once the current "real-time" fad runs its course in the web developer communities, predicting what's next is easy -- it's literally "predicting what comes next" -- predictive business computing technologies.

And as large enterprises increasingly deploy predictive IT systems, Tibco looks to be well positioned, in the right place at the right time, and should be able to profit handsomely from these trends.

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November 17, 2009 | Permalink | Comments | Subscribe to SVW

PearlTrees: A Novel Approach To Human Mapping Of The Internet

By Tom Foremski - November 16, 2009

Patrice Lamothe is the CEO of PearlTrees, an unique social bookmarking service that uses the visual metaphor of "pearls" with each containing a web page. And like all visual metaphors it is best to see it rather than read a description. Here is a quick video and a sample image:

"PearlTrees is a way for people to map the Internet by collecting related web pages. Although each tree is organized subjectively it becomes connected to other trees, and over time it will represent a human map of the Internet," says Mr Lamothe.

He says that social bookmarking, through services such as Delicious, has failed. "If you add up all the users of social bookmarking services it might be 10 million, which is very small."

Social bookmarking has failed, he says, because tagging links is not a good way to organize the web. "You pick a tag but that tag doesn't say much, it is better to visually show the relationship between similar web content."

The company has several thousand users in France and will formally announce the service in the US around February.

Mr Lamothe says that a high percentage of users are women, and many users aren't geeks. These groups likely would never be Delicious users yet they are active in creating PearlTrees and thus are helping to map the web.

PearlTrees has an excellent user interface and is designed to allow people to learn its features through what Mr Lamothe describes as "social play." Some pearls have different colors, some have a small black pearl next to them, etc. The meaning of these things is discovered through clicking on the pearls and exploring.

PearlTrees have all the social sharing capabilities you'd expect: Facebook, Twitter, blogs, etc.

The simplicity of the design and concept is intriguing because it allows for potentially unique collections of web sites, and for some novel uses. I want to try it for publishing a blog post and showing the research that went into a story. Or to curate a subject such as the ongoing Rupert Murdoch battle with Google. Or maybe crowd-source a news story...

There are lots of permutations of PearlTrees that can be created because each "pearl" can contain other PearlTrees seemingly ad infinitum "we don't yet know what the limit is," says Mr Lamothe.

An upcoming feature will interface PearlTrees with Twitter to create pearls of recommended links from your network. This would help transform the ephemeral nature of Twitter into a permanent record.

Revenue could come from several sources. All trees are currently public and a future option might be to charge people for creating private trees. "Creating public trees is contributing to the community but private trees don't, so we might charge for that service."

For now, Mr Lamothe wants more users, so that there are more PearlTrees available for new users, and then he will choose an appropriate monetization strategy.

Try it for yourself. The service is in "open alpha" and open to anyone: http://www.pearltrees.com/

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November 16, 2009 | Permalink | Comments | Subscribe to SVW

MediaWatch Analysis Part II: Google Has More To Lose Than Murdoch

By Tom Foremski - November 15, 2009

The accepted wisdom among the Digerati has been that Rupert Murdoch's News Corp, and the entire newspaper industry, would be in deep trouble if they barred Google from indexing their content.

I dealt with one aspect of this thinking last week. [The dirty little secret about search engine traffic]

There is a second aspect. It is Google that would be in trouble and not the newspapers.

Let me explain:

- The value of Google search traffic to the newspapers is low. Its loss wouldn't make much difference to the newspapers' already poor online revenues.

- The damage to Google would be much greater. If it is locked out from being able to index a large part of the Internet, it would be very bad for business. It would create a crisis of confidence in Google.

If something like that happened, it would strike at its very core, its mission: "To index all the world's information."

Google users would question "what else is missing?"

GOOG's index is its Achilles' heel. It will do everything it needs to do to protect its ability to index content.

It doesn't care if the content is free or not, as Google's Josh Cohen recently told SearchEngineLand: "...people will say ... 'I have to make this content free or Google won't index it,' and that's not the case."

I ask again, who has the most to lose if News Corp and other large publishers block Google?

Newspaper online revenues won't be much affected at all.

But for Google its reputation as having the best index would be seriously harmed. It would have a large hole in its index.

And that hole would be made up of missing content - new content - the most valuable thing for search engines. People search for new content. That's what brings them back to Google.

Google has far more to lose than the newspaper publishers from being blocked.

And that's why it will do whatever it needs to do in order to preserve its index, including possibly paying for access.

Rupert Murdoch may very well have found the weak spot in Google's business.

- - -

Please see part one of MediaWatch Analysis:

Murdoch Will Negotiate Payment For Access To Basket Of Content With GOOG et al

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November 15, 2009 | Permalink | Comments | Subscribe to SVW

MediaWatch Analysis: Murdoch Will Negotiate Payment For Access To Basket Of Content With GOOG et al

By Tom Foremski - November 15, 2009

Rupert Murdoch and his senior execs at News Corp, and Wall Street Journal have been getting a lot of publicity this year for their complaints against Google and news aggregators.

Google has borne much of the brunt of the complaints even though Yahoo News is three times larger (source: Danny Sullivan at SearchEngineLand).

Foremski's Take:

But why have Mr Murdoch and others at News Corp. spent so much time criticizing Google when there is a simple solution: post a robot.txt file that tells Google and others not to search and index their content?

Because criticizing Google results in a lot more publicity. Because Mr Murdoch has another goal: he is most probably laying the groundwork to negotiate a deal with Google, Yahoo, Microsoft, and others, where they will pay to index News Corp content and also content from other publishers allied with News Corp.

Take a look at these points:

- By collecting a package of other publishers, Mr Murdoch can avoid the problem caused by what I call "first mover disadvantage" in that the first publishers with paywalls, risk losing audience to rivals that wait to build their paywalls. That's a much larger business risk than the traffic lost from blocking Google. That's a risk all news publishers face not just News Corp. Better to be in a collective.

- Mr Murdoch is emerging as a champion for other news publishers in his criticism of Google. That's an excellent opportunity to become the rallying point for the newspaper industry as a whole and to recruit publishers into a common basket of content.

- Mr Murdoch and his top executives are masters at using the media to manipulate others to get what they want -- in this case Google is the target.

- Why would competitors join with Mr Murdoch? A better question is why wouldn't they? They would all still compete on writing the news first, that wouldn't change in either scenario. The advantage would be better revenues from subscriptions using a collective approach. Mr Murdoch and his allies could offer packages consisting of local, regional, national and even foreign publications for one monthly fee. No need for micropayments by readers -- the payments could be divided up within the group transparently, the readers pay one fee.

- Would readers pay for content? They already do. Revenue from subscribers has already overtaken revenue from advertising at many publications. In its most recent financial quarter the New York Times said revenues from readers overtook advertising revenues for the first time -- a watershed moment. That's a trend that still has a ways to go and will be helped by new ways to collect subscriptions for online content.

- Would GOOG et al, pay for access to index content? Yes, GOOG already pays for content from the AP and for TV shows to show on YouTube.

- Google would pay because search engines need novelty. They need to index new content. Otherwise why do people use a search engine? To find what they already know is there, or to look for new content? It's mostly the latter.

- If users know that a search engine is blocked from new content then that is a very negative psychological strike against it -- what else doesn't it have? Google, and others need to maintain an impression that they "index all the world's content." Index is their prime goal, rather than to serve up free content.

Josh Cohen at Google News made this very point "there is still a lot of those discussions that take place where people will say ... 'I have to make this content free or Google won't index it,' and that's not the case."

- Google is open to working with publishers in a variety of ways. Danny Sullivan at SearchEngineLand interviewed Josh Cohen at Google News. He said that Google already has a large number of different programs to offer publishers and will work on custom programs too.

Here are a couple more quotes from Google's Josh Cohen:

"We want to be in a situation where the best content wins, not the best SEOed site."

"You can allow us to crawl content and show a preview to the user and label it as a subscription."

Mr Murdoch and his allies will be able to have their cake and eat it in the sense that they can have Google index their content, and also have a paywall.

Plus, they have many business levers to pull in that they can continue to make some content free; to place less content behind a paywall; and to optimize their landing pages for Google and other traffic to make for better ad conversions (as Jonathan Mendez points out in SVW comments).

And potentially get a payment from Google and other search engines in addition to everything else.

This will be one of the ways the media industry halts the decline in its fortunes. Overall, the media industry will need to adopt what I call a "Heinz 57" business model, with multiple revenue streams, there won't be just one or two magic bullets.

The challenge for publishers will be in managing multiple sources of revenue. But that's an opportunity for startups to offer the admin tools, and help aggregate the revenues streams for large publishers.

- - -

Please see:

Analysis On Murdoch And Switching Off GOOG: The Dirty Little Secret About Search Engine Traffic...

WSJ Chief: There Are Two Types: Creators And Aggregators - Creators Carry The Burden Of Costs

Google Is Really Bad At Monetizing Content Yet CEO Schmidt Lectures Newspapers

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November 15, 2009 | Permalink | Comments | Subscribe to SVW

WeekendWatcher: The Sheer Number Of Things Will Devalue Them

By Tom Foremski - November 14, 2009

I've occasionally been writing about an effect that the Internet causes, an effect of devaluation. The Internet devalues everything it touches, if it can be made digital.

Happy Birthday Dear Internet . . . The Internet Devalues Everything It Touches

A Saturday Post: The Internet Devalues Everything It Touches, Anything That Can Be Digitized

In those articles I use the word "devalue" in its monetary sense but it can also be used in its broader definition, in reference to the cultural and societal sense of "values."

It's a controversial position because it seems as if I am critiquing the Internet and ignoring the tremendous amount of value that the Internet has enabled. But that's not the case, I'm merely pointing out a few things about the nature of the Internet and what it enables.

It's good to see others noticing this effect too. Especially when it is one of my favorite authors, the extraordinary writer Cormac McCarthy.

Mr McCarthy is not very interested in self-publicity and rarely gives interviews. But John Jurgensen at the Wall Street Journal managed to get some time with Mr McCarthy using the occasion of the upcoming release of "The Road," a movie based on his book of the same name.

Cormac McCarthy on The Road - WSJ.com

In the interview Mr McCarthy talks about technology and the future. He says:

Well, I don't know what of our culture is going to survive, or if we survive. If you look at the Greek plays, they're really good. And there's just a handful of them. Well, how good would they be if there were 2,500 of them? But that's the future looking back at us. Anything you can think of, there's going to be millions of them. Just the sheer number of things will devalue them. I don't care whether it's art, literature, poetry or drama, whatever. The sheer volume of it will wash it out. I mean, if you had thousands of Greek plays to read, would they be that good? I don't think so.

. . . This is just entry level to what's coming. Just the appalling volume of artifacts will erase all meaning that they could ever possibly have.

"The appalling volume of artifacts..."

What a brilliant way to describe the horror of the bounty that the Internet enables.

The rest of the interview is excellent too.

Cormac McCarthy on The Road - WSJ.com

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November 14, 2009 | Permalink | Comments | Subscribe to SVW

ChipWatch - Where Will The Next Generation Of Engineers Come From?

By Guest Writer - Matt Grimshaw - November 13, 2009

By Matt Grimshaw, Editorial Director of the Semiconductor Technical Journal Future Fab International.

According to the latest round of Q3 financial results we should all be partying like Rockstars because the recession is officially over, profits are back and Elvis has been found alive and well working in a Walmart in St Louis.

Everyone in the supply chain is posting record (relatively speaking) sales and I'm sure lots of C-Level Executives will be enjoying a big fat bonus come Christmas to celebrate while continuing to lay off staff.

Hell, even Ford has made a profit - there is a Santa Claus!

There should however be a declaimer attached to the squashy feelings of joy, for it's now time to rebuild and I suspect that it's not going to be easy. Short term will not be a problem, there are so many out of work engineers it's a buyers market. However, what about the mid to long term?

The Semiconductor industry as a whole may have shot itself in the foot in it's now ubiquitous habit of hiring and firing... for is has inadvertently posted a big advert saying "Come on; JOIN the chip industry - where you are a merely number on a balance sheet!" Of course, in the final reckoning everybody's just a paycheck when it comes to corporate accounting - but if you think about it from another perspective this trend in the industry is alarming.

If you are a schoolkid and you're looking at setting up a career in some kind of tech sector. You look around at the various industries and see that Internet start ups are certainly doing well although they suffer high rates of start up failure. It's an acceptable gamble as you might be one of the sacred two hundred at the next Google.

The internet is still a relatively young business segment (the chip industry's been around for more than 40 years) that has massive growth potential through mobile and the proliferation of new ideas.

Staring at a computer screen all day isn't for everyone though so how about the tech manufacturing disciplines?

Well, LED, Medical Devices and the Photo-Voltaic sectors all seem pretty safe bets, all making money, all poised for massive growth with bright futures ahead of them. So what about the chip sector? Surely the driving force behind all this technology is a good bet?

Nothing but nothing works today without come kind of computer chip doing the thinking/measuring/timing/observing, so surely that's a good field to be in? Well, it's not when you know that the Chip industry sheds tens of thousands of jobs every time there is an economic blip.

For such is the pricing volatility in the industry that if the economy even coughs in the wrong tone of voice, many companies go into anaphylactic shock and lay off staff faster then a quarterback lays off the ball on a 4th down play...

Oh, and when it turns around again, you might get re-hired, but this time as a contractor so they don't have to give you healthcare or any assurances of work from month to month. Nice.

Engineers have become expendable assets to companies these days, and I actually find it distasteful that some in the industry feel it's OK to treat the front line troops in such a manner. It may well turn into a case of 'you don't know what you've got 'till it's gone' with the Engineering community.

Almost all the engineers I know would jump out of the chip business in a heartbeat if they got an offer somewhere else, and that's really a sad state of affairs.

If I were in school I'd not be tempted to jump into the chip industry, even if you dangled a solid gold carrot in front of my nose. There's easier money to be made elsewhere.

The chip industry could find itself facing a brain drain. I've heard and seen many presentations that in the not too distant future there's going to be a shortage of engineering talent in the chip industry.

If that happens it will have a profound effect on every other industry, as without the chips to run the servers, there is no internet. Without the chips to run your phone... of course I'm being extreme, but I'm sure you get the picture.

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November 13, 2009 | Permalink | Comments | Subscribe to SVW

Public Healthcare Could Cut Startup Costs And Help Spur Innovation

By Tom Foremski - November 13, 2009

I was looking at a survey of small businesses and whether they would cancel their healthcare plans if public healthcare were available.

VerticalResponse, which offers surveys and email marketing services, polled 831 small US businesses about the effect of public healthcare on their business.

Theron Kabrich the CEO of The San Francisco Art Exchange, was one of the small businesses surveyed. He made an interesting comment and it is one that is very applicable to Silicon Valley.

"A public offering of healthcare unburdens small businesses and entrepreneurs alike, as it allows them to focus on core parts of their business such as innovations and new products. It also removes an unfair competitive advantage for small businesses when trying to attract the best employees, and levels the playing field."

Will Silicon Valley startups cut their current healthcare plans? They might.

High healthcare costs are a large burden for Silicon Valley startups. The availability of public healthcare should lead to lower costs for startup companies and make more capital available for investment in development.

VCs might demand a provision that their startups not offer healthcare plans. Would this harm recruitment?

Probably not because startups have fairly young staff and the attraction is not getting a safe job with benefits, but a chance to build a valuable business.

It'll be interesting to see how the availability of public healthcare affects Silicon Valley businesses.

- - -

The VerticalResponse survey found that one quarter wouldn't cancel their healthcare policies.

There were considerable disparities between different sized businesses. Of those with less than 10 employees, 72% offered no healthcare compared with 24% of businesses with 11 to 100 staff that offered no healthcare.

Here are some more findings:

- 40.9% of businesses with 11-100 employees wouldn't cancel their employer-provided coverage if there was a public offering and the largest portion of businesses with 1-10 employees also wouldn't.

- Of all small businesses an average of 16% of businesses would cancel their employer-provided coverage if there was a public offering.

- 71.8% of businesses with 1-10 employees do not offer healthcare to employees--versus the 69.4% of businesses with 11-100 employees who do offer healthcare to employees.

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November 13, 2009 | Permalink | Comments | Subscribe to SVW

Some Strange Facebook Marketing Programs...

By Tom Foremski - November 13, 2009

A reader writes:

"I've had an interesting experience with two "friends" on facebook. The first was about 6 months ago, with an old friend who I never talk to from about 20 years ago. After I friended him, I started to get movie reviews all the time from him ---about three a day, but only on my iPhone, never when I actually logged in on a regular computer. I never got a personal message from him, and he never posted anything that looked truly personal except a few photos. Here is the tricky thing about the iPhone app. You can't manage your friends on it. But then when you go online with a regular computer, none of his posts are there, so you forget you want to delete him. Eventually, I did delete him.

Then just a few weeks ago, another "old friend" who I didn't recognize, but who my other friends gave testimonials about remembering them from high school (20 years ago), convinced me to friend this person. Once this happened, I would once again get lots of stuff on my iPhone mobile app, but little on my regular computer. This time it was from the facebook games. I don't even remember which ones anymore. One thing about this person was really odd. She posted a couple of things that appeared to be normal personal posts, and in reply, she would get 2,500 comments in about 1 hour.

Something strange is going on. It's like facebook is selling special privileges to some companies so that they can do some odd marketing through the mobile app."

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November 13, 2009 | Permalink | Comments | Subscribe to SVW

PartyWatch: Outcast CEO Dinner Was Mostly Hacks And Flacks And No Dinner

By Tom Foremski - November 13, 2009

I enjoyed the Outcast CEO Dinner despite there being very few CEOs and no dinner (and a long trek to Menlo Park during peak commute.)

There was lots of media there and I had fun catching up with colleagues. My apologies to Brad Stone and Damon Darlin from the New York Times for badgering them about the scam ads in the virtual goods industry. I think there's a great story that still needs to be written about that industry. [The Goods May Be Virtual, but the Profit Is Real - NYTimes.com]

Ulysses King is back at Outcast after spending about a year at Kyte. Ulysses spent a long time telling Damon Darling how wonderful the New York Times is, and how Outcast always tells its clients how good the New York Times is (West Coasters don't read newspapers I guess).

It was great to catch up with Gaurav Dhillon, CEO and founder of SnapLogic. [Gauruv Dhillon's SnapLogic: Creating The Connections For The Business Internet]

The Outcast CEO Dinner used to be a real sit down dinner. This year there was no dinner at all and hardly any CEOs. Maybe next year it could be renamed the Outcast Hacks And Flacks Happy Hour.

Towards the end of the evening Outcast tried to flush its guests by switching the lights off and on. When that failed to generate an exodus for the doors, someone turned the lights off completely for a while. A strange way to say goodnight.

I wanted to thank Aarti Shah, PRWeek's star reporter, and her partner Matt for a ride back to San Francisco.

I popped into the Ubergizmo party but it was winding down. However, it was good to run into a few people, especially Darcy Provo, who used to be at the Antenna Group. Darcy was in great form and said she is working with a new client Keas, founded by Adam Bosworth, former head of Google Health.

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November 13, 2009 | Permalink | Comments | Subscribe to SVW

Is GOOG's $750m AdMob Buy Strategic Or Dumb? An alternate view...

By Tom Foremski - November 12, 2009

Niki Scevak, a serial entrepreneur, is good at analyzing mergers and often has insightful things to say that others often miss. [Please see: "Twitter's $100m Investment Will Make It Tough On Staff Recruitment" ]

He's not a fan of Google's $750m acquisition of AdMob, the mobile ad network because:

- Few people will use mobile phones to research and search for products to buy because the form factor is limited.

- Sites get about 10% of traffic from mobile search compared compared with about 30% from desktop search. [This is actually on the low side it can easily be 60% or more for many sites.]

- Mobile ads will never be as impressive or immersive as they are on desktop/laptops because of the limited form factor. This won't improve.

And:

AdMob is an ad network. They currently get 40% of the revenue because it is a nascent industry (their net revenue is about $25-30m). That will pretty quickly move to 10-20% cut as the industry scales. We saw it in search advertising (Overture) and display advertising (AdSense). The economics will get worse for the business.

- He estimates AdMob generating about $10m/month on about 10bn ad impressions which works out to a measly $1 CPM.

So color me skeptical for Google paying 30x net revenue for an ad network operating in a poor advertising medium. The Youtube acquisition was a million times better than this one.

Well said.

I would probably quibble about some of Mr Scevak's math and be a bit more generous in some of his estimates. Either way it would still add up to a very large premium Google has paid for the AdMob business.

The fact remains that Google has yet to show that any of its acquisitions have proven their value. And this is yet another one to add to the list.

I think it would be more strategic for Google to look at diversifying from its reliance on Internet advertising. For example, MSFT has many business lines, Google does not.

Google needs an open Internet to succeed long term. What better way to guarantee unobstructed access than to own a telco? How about AT&T?

That's what I call a strategic acquisition. AT&T brings in $31bn a quarter and has a billing relationship with tens of millions of households and businesses. The market values [GOOG] higher than [T].

Can you imagine a combined GOOG and AT&T platform? You could drive lots of new Internet services and ads in a myriad ways.

- - -

Please see:

Bronte Media: Google's Strategic AdMob Mistep

MSFT Earnings Report: It Would Take GOOG More Than 3 Years To Catch Up

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November 12, 2009 | Permalink | Comments | Subscribe to SVW

Intel Will Pay $1.25 billion To AMD To End All Legal Disputes

By Tom Foremski - November 12, 2009

As Intel faces anti-trust challenges in New York and Europe, it has agreed to pay Advanced Micro Devices $1.25 billion and enter into a joint five-year cross licensing agreement.

The move ends all outstanding legal disputes between the two companies.

"AMD and Intel obtain patent rights from a new 5-year cross license agreement, Intel and AMD will give up any claims of breach from the previous license agreement, and Intel will pay AMD $1.25 billion. Intel has also agreed to abide by a set of business practice provisions. As a result, AMD will drop all pending litigation including the case in U.S. District Court in Delaware and two cases pending in Japan. AMD will also withdraw all of its regulatory complaints worldwide."

The money will be a welcome boost for AMD which has struggled to keep up with Intel.

It also sets free Global Foundries, the fab spin-off company from AMD. There was concern that Global Foundries would lack the legal right to produce X86 compatible chips.

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November 12, 2009 | Permalink | Comments | Subscribe to SVW

In Silicon Valley Trimming Trees Saves Copper...

By Tom Foremski - November 11, 2009

Andreas Ramos says he recently met someone that carries out tree maintenance for many of the empty office buildings in Silicon Valley.

He asked him what was the point?

The answer was that security cameras can't police the property if the trees and shrubs aren't trimmed. And people will break in to rip out the copper wiring. Despite our increasingly wireless environment there's still a lot of copper in power, Ethernet, and phone wiring in office buildings.

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November 11, 2009 | Permalink | Comments | Subscribe to SVW